The global technology group Wärtsilä has unveiled its latest report – Nigeria Leading Africa to Net Zero – which lays out a comprehensive roadmap for Nigeria to achieve a fully renewable energy power system by the year 2060. This initiative aligns with Nigeria’s ambition to spearhead climate action in Africa while addressing the critical need for reliable electricity access for its growing population.
The report emphasizes the importance of a data-driven and cost-effective energy strategy as Nigeria navigates its path toward climate goals. By employing advanced energy system modelling techniques, Wärtsilä analysts have identified the most feasible and economical power system, projecting the necessary updates year after year to facilitate a transition to net zero emissions by 2060.
Wärtsilä’s report outlines an optimal energy setup consisting of 1,200GW of renewable energy capacity; 283GW of energy storage; and 34GW of engine-based power plants for grid balancing.
The findings suggest that this strategic investment in renewables, coupled with flexibility provided by gas engines and energy storage solutions, will not only minimize energy costs but also enhance access to electricity and improve grid reliability. Notably, the cost of electricity generation is expected to plummet by 74% by 2060 when compared to 2022 levels, with carbon emissions targeted to reach zero.
Crucially, the report highlights the role of Nigeria’s domestic gas reserves as a transition fuel. These reserves can be utilized effectively to support grid stability and balance renewable energy production, with plans to eventually convert gas engine power plants to run on green hydrogen by the early 2040s.
“If the power system expansion roadmap presented in the report is successfully implemented, by 2060 Nigeria’s power system will be fully decarbonized and capable of meeting the energy needs of our rapidly growing population. By 2032, Nigeria can achieve universal electricity access, rendering the use of inefficient, costly, and polluting diesel generators a thing of the past,” said Wale Yusuff, Managing Director of Wärtsilä in Nigeria.
However, the ambitious vision put forth will necessitate substantial financial investment, estimated at $18.7 billion by 2030 and $425 billion by 2060.
“Attracting that level of investment is possible, but it requires significant policy reforms. Despite existing government efforts to establish a robust legal framework, project developers still face a complex and uncertain implementation landscape that heightens investment risks,” said Yusuff.
With its vast gas reserves and rich renewable energy potential, Nigeria possesses the necessary natural resources to undertake a successful energy transition. To make meaningful progress, the country must focus on strengthening its power transmission infrastructure, developing a consistent policy framework, and adopting a robust, data-driven plan that emphasizes renewable energy and flexibility.
